Scenario 1: 
Minimum Growth

The Policy

• To preserve the City of Cambridge and the surrounding area much as it is today.

• No additional buildings within the City and South Cambridgeshire beyond existing planning permissions.

• New development allowed in market towns such as Ely, Huntingdon, St Ives, St Neots and beyond.

• Replacement or renewal of buildings allowed within the City and South Cambridgeshire (e.g., conversion of houses into flats, or warehousing into offices, etc).

• Transport to remain as it is now (e.g., no increase in road capacity or public transport).

Existing planning permissions, the subdivision of houses into flats and reductions in household size would allow some increase in households in the City and South Cambridgeshire. Big increases would occur where development is allowed in East Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire.

Employment continues to grow in the City. This is despite restrictions due to existing permissions for development, and the substitution of extensive space users (i.e., warehousing and manufacturing) by intensive space users (e.g., high-tech business, private and public services).

The results

• Dwelling costs increase substantially within the City and South Cambridgeshire.

• Displacement of middle and lower socio-economic groups in the City by wealthy managerial and professional groups.

• Commercial floorspace costs increase substantially within the City and South Cambridgeshire.

• Displacement of traditional jobs in the City by more competitive high-tech and private service jobs.

• Increased separation of jobs and houses which would generate extra commuting into Cambridge and its fringe.

The cost of living within the City and South Cambridgeshire would increase substantially, due to increased house prices and rentals, costs of goods, services and transport.

The cost of production within the City and South Cambridgeshire would increase substantially, due to increased labour costs, floorspace rentals and congestion.

• The increased separation between jobs in and around the City and households beyond South Cambridgeshire would generate increased levels of commuting which for the period 2001 to 2016 would imply:

  • an increase in travel distances of 29%

  • an increase in travel time of 79%

  • a trebling of queuing delays within the City

  • an increase in energy consumption by 56%.

• The majority of trips would be by car as public transport is unsustainable with dispersed population location.

• Increase in emissions and thus pollution.

• Radical measures would be necessary to reduce congestion.

Evaluation

Efficiency

• Economic efficiency would be impaired, putting at risk the competitiveness of the region.

• Export-oriented firms such as those in the high-tech sector would find it very difficult to compete with the rest of the world, as they would face an increase in production costs of over 50% (between 2001 and 2016).

Equity

• Social equity would be impaired. The City of Cambridge would become more segregated through the concentration of high-income groups. South Cambridgeshire would also become more segregated.

• Lower socio-economic groups concentrate in East Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire, unable to afford high prices of living in the South of the County.

Environment

• Good protection of the environment of the City and of the surrounding area of South Cambridgeshire at the expense of increased use of greenfield land in East Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire.

• Increase in emissions and pollution due to commuting.