Summary Report

2. Base Case: The Structure Plan


Key Elements of the Base Case

The following committed elements of the Structure Plan were included in the Base model:

  • Expansion of dwellings in the City and on its periphery, in a new settlement and market towns
  • Expansion of business floorspace
  • A14 highway expansion from the A1 to Fen Ditton interchange
  • North-facing slip roads at M11 Junction 13
  • Link road from M11 to Addenbrookes
  • Introduction of a guided bus from Huntingdon through Cambridge to Trumpington park and ride
  • A new railway station at Chesterton
  • Extension of bus services to new areas
  • Continued improvements to pedestrian and cycleways

Some other committed elements of the Structure Plan were not explicitly modelled because of the limitations of the detail within the model These include extension of bus services to new areas, and continued improvements to pedestrian and cycleways. A proposal in the Structure Plan for a rapid transit between the City Centre and the east of Cambridge was not included in the Base case because it is not at a sufficiently advanced stage of planning to be regarded as committed.

Sustainability Implications

The Structure Plan supports the growth of the knowledge based economy of the Sub-region by providing more housing where the numbers of jobs are growing, improving the social balance, and protecting the high quality environment of the city. However, the growth in jobs and dwellings will present major challenges, because housing costs will continue to rise, with respect to 2001 values, as demand outstrips supply, resulting in about half the expected increase if no further development was allowed within or around the built-up area of the city. Nevertheless, there is a risk to the economic prosperity of the Sub-region and its social development.

However, the most significant problem is  the traffic implications, because while there is growth in public transport use in absolute and proportional terms, there will also be a substantial increase in car traffic in the city.

This is a consequence of the rise in the number of higher income households relative to 2001 and the increase in distance from dwellings to jobs and other facilities as the city expands. The consequence is an increase in delays with crawling speeds on the main city roads and a substantial increase in carbon emissions (+30%).

Results

  • The City and Sub-region will expand substantially
  • Car traffic increases, especially in Cambridge with major delays
  • Public transport use increases
  • Walking and cycling proportionally the same
  • Environmental a worsening in local air pollution and an increase in carbon emissions
  • Cost of living and production costs increase, risking the competitiveness of the Sub-region
Introducing the Study Base
Case
Cycling/ Walking Public Transport Orbital Highway Congestion Charging Combined Option Options Compared